运筹学Ⅲ教学资料 16 Probabilistic Inventory Models.pdfVIP

Probabilistic Inventory Models All the inventory models discussed in Chapter 15 require that demand during any period of time be known with certainty. In this chapter, we consider inventory models in which demand over a given time period is uncertain, or random; single-period inventory models, where a prob- lem is ended once a single ordering decision has been made; single-period bidding models; versions of the EOQ model for uncertain demand that incorporate the important concepts of safety stock and service level; the periodic review (R, S) model; the ABC inventory classifica- tion system; and exchange curves. 16.1 Single-Period Decision Models In many situations, a decision maker is faced with the problem of determining the value q for a variable (q may be the quantity ordered of an inventoried good, for example, or the bid on a contract). After q has been determined, the value d assumed by a random variable D is observed. Depending on the values of d and q, the decision maker incurs a cost c(d, q). We assume that the person is risk-neutral and wants to choose q to minimize his or her expected cost. Since the decision is made only once, we call a model of this type a single-period decision model. 16.2 The Concept of Marginal Analysis For the single-period model described in Section 16.1, we now assume that D is an integer-valued discrete random variable with P(D d) p (d). Let E(q) be the decision maker’s expected cost if q is chosen. Then E(q) p (d)c(d, q) d In most