房地产价格波动与通货膨胀关系研讨.pdf

I II 摘 要 通货膨胀是重要的宏观经济变量之一，是各个经济主体进行经济决策的重要依据， 能够准确地测度通货膨胀非常重要。但是大多数工业化国家在过去20 多年中，一个显 著的特点是，资产价格的持续上升和急剧下跌发生在通货膨胀率稳定甚至下降以及较为 稳定的宏观经济环境中，各国中央银行都试图维持低的通货膨胀，但房地产等资产价格 却急剧的膨胀，这些资产价格的急剧膨胀最终在高位崩溃而对实体经济产生了重要的负 面影响。所以，人们对CPI 等测度通货膨胀的指标体系产生了怀疑，很多学者试图编制 新的，用以准确反映包括房地产等资产价格在内的更为合理的反映物价水平指标体系。 本文首先分析了房地产价格对通货膨胀影响的传导机制，再利用1998 年至2008 年间的 月度样本数据对两者之间的关系进行了实证分析，得出两者之间存在如理论所分析的正 向反馈关系，房地产价格的波动能够影响通货膨胀，所以应该编制包含房地产价格在内 的更为全面的CPI 指标。但是房地产又不是纯消费品，不能简单的把对房地产的支出都 统计到CPI 指标之中，应将房地产支出分为两个部分——消费支出和投资支出，前者应 该纳入到CPI 体系之中，才能编制更加合理的反应物价水平波动的指标。既然房地产价 格波动对通货膨胀有影响，那么要想维持低的平稳的通货膨胀，就有必要维持一个平稳 的房地产市场，所以，在本文最后提出了如何稳定我国房地产市场的政策建议。 关键词：房地产价格 通货膨胀 房地产调控 III Abstract Inflation is one of the important macroeconomic variables, It is for all economic entities an important basis for economic decision-making. Whether or not an accurate measure of inflation is very important. However, most industrialized countries over the past 20 years, a remarkable feature is the continued rise in asset prices and a drastic drop in the inflation rate occurred in the stabilization and even decline, as well as a more stable macroeconomic environment.central banks are trying to maintain a low of inflation, but real estate and other asset prices, there was a dramatic expansion, the rapid expansion of asset prices eventually collapse at a high level has had a significant negative impact on real economy. Therefore, the measure of the CPI and other indicators of inflation have had a doubt, Many scholars have tried to prepare new indicator system to accurately reflect the assets, including real estate prices. This article first analyzes the impact of real estate prices on the transmi