货币政策地区效应.PDF

货币政策 区效应 # 49 # 货币政策地区效应 基于地区总供给曲线的理论与实证分析 卢 盛 荣 ( 厦门大学经济研究所) ! 本文着重检验了我国区域经济中的基于产出缺口的 区短期总供给曲 线的存在性, 进而分析 区短期总供给曲线对货币政策 区效应的影响文章首先 对 区短期总供给曲线存在的可能性进行了理论解释, 应用卡尔曼滤波方法估算了 我国各 区的产出缺口, 然后运用ARMA 模型说明预期通货膨胀率形成机制, 最 后以通货膨胀率与其预期之差外部需求冲击等作为解释变量对产出缺口进行回 归, 结果发现, 我国东部 区的短期总供给曲线较中西部 区的短期总供给曲线更 平坦, 因而东部 区货币政策效应要强于中西部 区 ∀ 区总供给曲线∀ 货币政策 区效应∀ 产出缺口∀ 预期通货膨胀率 ∀ F82∀ ∀ ∀ A A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of the Regional Effects of Monetary Policy: A Case Study of the Theory of the Aggregate Supply Curve ∀ ∀ Abstract: This article mainly testifies the existence of regional short run ag gregate supply curve based on the output gap and ma es a further analysis of the re gional effects of monetary policy on the short run aggregate supply curve con cerned. First, it ma es a theoretical illustration of the existence of regional short run aggregate supply curve. T hen, it estimates the output gap by Kalman filter. Next, it expounds the inflation forming mechanism by ARMA model. Finally , it regresses the output gap as the explained variable by inflation rate and the outer de mand impacts. We find that the short run aggregate supply curve of the eastern region is flatter than that of mid w estern region, w hich in turn leads to the con clusion that the effects of the monetary policy w or more strongly in the eastern re gion than in the mid w estern region. Key words: Regional Aggregate Supply Curve; Regional Effects of Monetary Policy; Output Gap; Expected Inflation 2005 ( : 05JJD790025, ∃ : %) # 50 # 数量经济技术经济研究∋ 2007 年第3 期 ∀ ∀ , , ( ) , , , , , , # ( 1997) , ∃ , , : , , %, , ,