巴黎银行-哥伦比亚-宏观经济-哥伦比亚：处于降息边缘.pdfVIP

Colombia: On the cutting edge Author:  We reaffirm our long-held below consensus forecast of a 4.0% 2018 monetary policy rate. Luiz Eduardo Peixoto  CPI should dip below 3 .5% by Q1, allowing the expansionary push to be intensified. Economist Banco BNP Paribas Brasil SA  Sticky non-tradable inflation should ease with softer indexation forces, albeit above headline. We continue to see policy As inflation drops and economic activity stays subdued, we keep seeing rates moving lower. In rates edging lower August, we lowered our forecast for end-2018 policy rate to 4.0% (please see Colombias inflation: Down and sideways), then below consensus, and now reiterate this view. Our baseline scenario is for three back-to-back 25bp cuts, starting in March, when BanRep should have details from the February CPI print – forecast by us to dip below 3.5% y/y (see Chart 1). Just a question of time Risks for a cut in January exist. Headline CPI would likely have ended 2017 within target range, before the next cut had it not been for the one-off soccer match in Bogotá (which alone added around 10bp to inflation), and core subgroups would’ve dropped. Moreover, medium term inflation expectations remain anchored and it is expected that the upcoming activity releases will remain subdued. Against this backdrop, we expect BanRep’s decision to be a divided one – a recurring feature from last year. End-2017 CPI finished