巴黎银行-土耳其-宏观经济-先发制人不可松懈.pdfVIP

Turkey: No pre-emptive easing H. Erkin Işık, CFA  At the MPC meeting today, 18 January, the CBRT left the late liquidity window rate Turk Ekonomi Bank A.S. unchanged at 12.75%, in line with our call and the market consensus, following a FX IR CEEMEA Strategist 50bp hike at December’s meeting.  The statement highlighted that the central bank will look through the decline in headline inflation that will be the result of base effects in the coming months, so gave forward guidance that it will not ease monetary policy pre-emptively.  We think inflation expectations were an important factor in the CBRT’s decision and that it will wait for expected inflation after 24 months, which currently stands at 8.2% y/y, to fall to around 7% before easing monetary policy. The CBRT keeps rates unchanged The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) left the late liquidity window (LLW) rate unchanged at 12.75% at its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting today, in line with our call and the market consensus, following a 50bp hike at December’s meeting . All other corridor rates were also unchanged. As the CBRT is, in our view, likely to continue to provide all funding through the LLW, the average repo funding rate should also remain at 12.75% (Chart 1).