巴黎银行-全球-金融市场-基本均衡汇率，长期货币估值.pdfVIP

        www.GlobalM Please refer to important information at the end of the report and MAR disclosure. BNP Paribas FEER – Long-term valuation  BNP Paribas FEER is our gauge of long-term currency valuation based on long-term economic fundamentals.  FEER stands for Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate and is the exchange rate that corresponds with an economy operating with an internal balance (ie no output gap and unemployment rate in line with its NAIRU) and an external balance (ie the current account balance at a sustainable level).  The economic variables that cause a currency’s FEER to change over time are: (1) inflation, (2) productivity changes, (3) trends in the terms of trade (ie the price of imports and exports which is mainly driven by commodity prices) and (4) an economy’s holdings of net foreign assets (NFA).  Over the past year the size of the USD’s overvaluation has narrowed to 13% on a trade-weighted basis according to FEER. The USD is ‘rich’ by 9% against the EUR (EURUSD FEER is 1.34), 32% against the JPY (USDJPY FEER is 80.7) and 14% against the GBP (GBPUSD FEER is 1.58).  In the commodity bloc, the AUD and NZD are cheap vs the USD by 5% and 9% respectively, while the CAD appears slightly rich vs the USD. The SEK and NOK continue to appear cheap vs the EUR, while the CHF looks expensive. Chart 1: BNP Paribas FEER, current values* Chart 2: EURUSD has started to converge towards its FEER