基于动态规划下最优停时方法的多目标公司兼并次序及时机选择_扈文秀.pdfVIP

　2 1 1 系 统 管 理 学 报 V ol.2 1 N o .1　 　20 12 1 Jo ur nal of Sy stem s M anag ement Jan.20 12 　 　　:1005-2542 (2012)01-0034-0 8 扈文秀, 　张　涛, 　穆庆榜 ( , 710054 ) 【】基于动态规划思想, 使用最优停时方法研 了不确定的市场条件下, 企业依次兼并两家目标公 司的兼并次序和兼并时机问题。通过假设实现协同效应所需时间服从负指数分布来表征兼并后的整合风 险, 基于此建立了序贯兼并的最优停时模型, 分析了沉没成本分阶段支付对序贯兼并决策的影响, 并确定了 扩张型序贯兼并的次序选择原则。研 发现, 最佳兼并时机随着整合风险的增加而推迟;对于扩张型序贯兼 并而言, 兼并次序选择取决于沉没成本、谈判能力、企业规模、兼并协同度和整合风险等因素的权衡;分期逐 额支付沉没成本能够提高企业的兼并积极性, 加速兼并的实施。 :序贯兼并;兼并次序;兼并时机;最优停时 :F 830 　　　:A Sequencing and Timing of Multi-Targets Mergers based on Optimal Stopping by Dynamic Programming H U Wen-xiu, 　ZHAN G Tao, 　MU Qing-bang (Scho ol o f Bu s ness A dm n st rat on, X an Un ve rs ty o f T echnology , X an 710054, Ch na) 【Abstract】We study t he sequenc ng and t m ng of dual-targe ts merges based on opt mal st opp ng by dy - nam c prog ramm ng .A ssum ng the t me needed t o real ze t he sy nerg es s ex po nent ally d st r buted to re- present the co nsol dat on r sk, w e bu ld an opt m al stopp ng model of sequent al mergers, and analyze t he eff ect o f sunk co st s on sequent al merge dec s on.T he result s show t hat t he o pt mal t m ng of sequent al merg es s delayed w hen the co nsol dat on has h g h r sks, mo reo ver, n respect o f t he expanded sequent al merg es, the sequence of m erges s determ ned by t he t radeof f amo ng such facto rs as t he cost, barga n ng pow er, scale, synerg c deg ree and co nsol dat on r sk .It s also show n sunk co st s pa d may boost t he b d- d ng ent hu s asm and accelerate the me rgers. Key words:sequent al me rg ers;order of m ergers;t m ng o f mergers;o pt mal st opp ng [ 1] 　　、