复杂产品研制过程技术风险的仿真评估.pdfVIP

第21 卷第16 期 系 统 仿 真 学 报© Vol. 21 No. 16 2009 年8 月 Journal of System Simulation Aug., 2009 复杂产品研制过程技术风险的仿真评估 冯 强，曾声奎，任 羿，孙 博 (北京航空航天大学 工程系统工程系，北京 100083) 摘 要：探讨了复杂产品研制过程中技术风险的内涵，建立了费用风险、进度风险、性能风险等 三类技术风险之间的关系模型。考虑复杂产品研制过程的并行迭代特征，提出了一种基于设计结 构矩阵的多层技术风险仿真评估模型。系统分析了性能风险对进度、费用风险的影响，并依此给 出了一种两层抽样机制的仿真算法修正了传统仿真中仅考虑费用风险和进度风险的仿真偏差。在 此基础上，给出了定量评估子项目或活动技术风险的似然估计值的方法，为复杂产品研制过程的 风险控制提供了依据。 关键词：产品研制过程；仿真；风险评估；设计结构矩阵 中图分类号：TP391.9 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1004-731X (2009) 16-5207-05 Simulation Assessment for Technical Risk of Complex Product Development Process FENG Qiang, ZENG Sheng-kui, REN Yi, SUN Bo (Dept. of System Engineering of Engineering Technology, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100083, China) Abstract: The concept of technical risk in complex product development process was discussed, and a relationship model for three type’s technical risks (i.e. cost risk, schedule risk and performance risk) was established. A multilayer simulation model for technical risk assessment based on design structure matrix was proposed with considering the concurrent and iterative characteristic of complex product development process. The effect of performance risk on schedule and cost risk during simulation assessment was adequately analyzed, and the deflection of traditional simulation assessment which considered only cost risk and schedule risk was corrected by a new simulation algorithm based on two layer sampling tech