AirSea Interaction and the Possibility of LongRange Weather Prediction in the Indonesian Archipelago.pdf英文资料.pdfVIP

DECEMBER1981 N E V I L L E N I C H O L L S 2435 Air-Sea Interaction and the Possibility of Long-Range Weather Prediction in the Indonesian Archipelago Australian Numerical Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (Manuscript received 14 April 198 1, in final form 17 August 1981) ABSTRACT Evidence is presented supporting the hypothesis (first expressed over 60 years ago) that interannual fluctuations of early wet season rainfall in the Indonesian Archipelago can be successfully predicted from prior observations of atmospheric pressure anomalies. It is shown that this predictability is related to sea surface temperature anomalies. The postulated mechanism for this predictability is interaction of the at- mosphere and ocean leading to a tendency for anomalies in the two media to persist. Experiments to test this postulate are suggested. 1. Introduction on a time scale of a season or more. Thus, only where the actual observed variance of monthly means of A recent examination of the state of long-range a parameter is large relative to this natural vari- (i.e., greater than one m ~ n t h )weather prediction ability would we expect to find predictable interan- practice and research (Nicholls, 1980) reached two nu