确定性仿真结果检验和因子分析方法 Methods for test and factor analysis of determinate simulation results.pdfVIP

第22 卷 第2 期 航空动力学报 VoI. 22 No. 2 2007 年 2 月 Journal of Aerospace Power Feb. 2007 文章编号：1000-8055（2007 ）02-0169-06 确定性仿真结果检验和因子分析方法 傅惠民，邬文娟 （北京航空航天大学 小样本技术研究中心，北京 100083 ） 摘要：提出一种确定性仿真结果（不考虑随机因素影响的仿真结果）检验方法，能够对仿真结果与试验结果 之间的误差进行分析，确定该误差是由于仿真不正确引起的系统误差，还是由于试验结果的分散性引起的偶 然误差，进而判断仿真结果正确与否. 同时建立一种确定性仿真结果多因子分析方法，能够对仿真结果的各个 影响因素（因子）进行分析，确定哪些因素已被正确仿真，哪些因素尚未被正确模拟，从而指导仿真软件的编 制. 关 键 词：航空、航天推进系统；仿真；检验；因子分析；小样本；模型验证 中图分类号：TB301；0211 文献标识码：A Methods for test and factor analysis of determinate simulation results FU Hui-min ，WU Wen-juan （Research Center of SmaII SmapIe TechnoIogy ， BeijingUniversity of Aeronautics and Astronautics ，Beijing 100083 ，China ） Abstract ：A test method for determinatesimuIation resuIts ，in which random factors are not taken into account ，is presented. It can anaIyze the error between simuIation and experiment re- suIts ，distinguish between system error caused by simuIation incorrectness and accident error caused by the scatter of experiment resuIts ，and determine whether simuIationresuIts are right or not. A method for muItipIe factors anaIysis of determinatesimuIation resuIts is aIso presented ，which can an- aIyze every infIuencing factorof simuIation resuIts and determine which factors have been simuIated correctIyand which have not. In this way ，the method can guide the programming of simuIation soft- ware. Key words ：aerospace propuIsion system ；simuIation ；test ；factor anaIysis ；smaII sampIe ； modeI verfication 目前仿真技术已在航空、航天、船舶、电子