贝恩分析方法-Penetration+Curve+.ppt

scurve Agenda What is a Penetration Curve? (S-Curve) Product Life-Cycle Characteristics of Penetration Curves Agenda Applications of Penetration Curves Agenda Disguised Case Situation (1 of 2) Disguised Case Situation (2 of 2) H. Pylori Testing Market Agenda Methodology (1 of 3) Methodology (2 of 3) Methodology (3 of 3) Penetration Curves BOS Bc scurve Author: Nancy Greene Penetration Curve (S-Curve) March 1998 Copyright? 1998 Bain Company, Inc. scurve Concept Application Case example Methodology Copyright? 1998 Bain Company, Inc. scurve Products can be thought of as following a life-cycle that has several distinct phases: early adoption/trial mass adoption saturation/substitution decline The product life-cycle generates a series of market penetration rates that tend to follow a specific pattern, called an S-curve (or penetration curve) Given the pattern of penetration curves over time, and given that this relationship holds to some extent in almost every case, penetration curves can be a powerful tool in predicting the growth of new products scurve Time Volume Products can be thought of as following a life-cycle that has several distinct phases. Early adoption/trial Mass adoption Saturation/substitution Decline Driven by people who always adopt new things early and fuel the product’s initial growth The product becomes accepted by the general market; characterized by rapid product growth The product has either saturated the market, or is already being substituted for by another product that is in an earlier phase of the product life cycle The decline of the product, driven by complete substitution for or replacement with another product scurve Penetration can occur at the expense of an existing product, or it can drive new markets to grow Several factors will influence the end state, or saturation point, of a product: duration/speed of product life-cycle competitive forces innovation culture/society When considering penetration curves, there are a fe