巴莱克资本 2010年8月全球大宗商品研究报告.pdf

COMMODITIES RESEARCH 6 August 2010 WEEKLY COMMODITY COMPENDIUM Sudakshina Unnikrishnan +44 (0) 20 7773 3797 sudakshina.unnikrishnan@ Kerri Maddock +44 (0) 20 3134 2300 kerri.maddock@ A largely positive week for commodity prices has seen price action being dominated by the wheat market, where prices are trading 25% higher on the week and 50% up on the month, reaching two-year highs. Fears have been piqued that we may be heading back to the 2007-08 food crisis, although in our view market fundamentals are less compelling this time around with many of the key factors that propelled prices in that period missing. Earlier this week, the Russian government announced a ban on grain exports from 15 August to 31 December, confirming market fears over potential export restrictions being put in place by Black Sea producer-exporters. Oil prices have breached $80/bbl in recent days, which we think could indicate that the oil market is finally starting to try to look p