困难解决 与市场决策problem solving and de cision making.ppt

* * * Deciding yes or no Choosing from an identified list Creative Ground breaking decisions * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Proving the Cause Identification of the cause of a problem will almost inevitably lead to action designed to eliminate it. Deciding what to do involve decision making which is a distinct process in its own right and is dealt with in next chapter. If action is taken to eliminate the wrong cause, there is a strong possibility that your actions will only make matters worse. Therefore, it is often worthwhile seeing if you can prove that the most likely explanation is the actual cause. Proving the Cause Proving the cause involves: Checking that the actual cause identified does explain all the facts at your disposal About both the problem and those things that are right. Testing that any assumptions you have made which support the analysis are accurate. Trying to replicate the problem situation in a controlled test. Review Once you have found the cause you should conduct a review to see if you can improve your performance next time round. The review should focus on three basic questions: What went well? What went less well? What should we do differently next time? Problem Solving Background to Problem Solving Setting the Problem Statement Analyze the Problem in Detail Identify Likely Causes Define Actual Causes Decision Making The ICES decision making process stands for InitiateCriteriaEvaluateSelect Decision Making A decision is about making choices. It is the cut off point at which you stop the process of thinking and begin the process of action. There are many types of decisions including: Yes or no decisions Choose from a list Creative Making Decisions If a decision is a cut off point when the thinking process stops, Clearly the quality of thinking determines the quality of decisions. But what is involved in the thinking process? There are many ways to make decisions and all manners of