中国P2P网络借贷平台风险及其决定因素研究.doc

中国P2P网络借贷平台风险及其决定因 素研宄 何光辉杨咸月蒲嘉杰 复旦大学经济学院上海社科院应用经济研宄所 研宂目标：屮国网络借贷平台风险及其决定因素。研宂方法:在分析整体特征、检 验问题与正常平台风险差异基础上，运用Logistic模型分析平台出险的决定因 素，并进行包括Probit模型在内的稳健性检验。研究发现:整体上，平台基本为 民营公司，整体实力弱;股东少，公司治理机制弱;利率高，业务集中度风险高， 违约控制措施少；营运两极分化。结构上，问题类平台与正常平台之间的道德风 险及公司治理、营运风险差异显著;标的利率、业务多元化、违约控制措施也差 异显著。道德风险及公司治理、信用管理和营运风险越高，平台出问题的可能性 越大。研究创新:提出四类风险假设及指标体系并进行实证检验。研究价值：防范 平台出险，确保其健康发展。 关键词： 网络借贷平台;风险;决定因素; 基金：国家自然科学基金项目 Risks and Their Determinants of P2P Internet Lending Platforms in China He Guanghui Yang Xianyue Pu Jiajie School of Economics，Fudan University; Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences; Abstract： Research Objectives:This paper is to study the risks and their determinants of P2P internet lending platforms in China. Research Methods:Based on the overall characteristics of P2P platforms, significant differences of risks between troubled and normal ones, Logistic models arc applied to analyze the determinants of risks，and then robustness tests are conducted. Research Findings:Generally, most platforms are private-owned with weak strength, have few shareholders with weak corporate governance, charge higher rates for borrowings, have higher concentration risks, less default control measures, and are obvious polarization. Moral hazards，corporate governance risks, and operation risks show significant difference between the troubled platforms and normal platforms. Rates, diversification and default control measures of credit risk management are also significant between both types of platforms. The higher the moral hazard risks, corporate governance risks， credit risks and operational risks， the greater the probability of troubled platforms would be.Research Contributions:This paper puts forward four types of risk hypotheses and corresponding proxies, and tests them. Research Value:Realistic implications for controlling the high risks and ensuring sound development of P2P platforms in China. Keyword： Internet Lending Platforms; Risks; Determinants; 一、引言与文献综述 网络借贷近年来为解决急需资金但又被银行