强劲需求支撑平均.PDF

Colliers Quarterly Q4 2017 9 February 2018 SHANGHAI | OFFICE 上海 | 写字楼 Strong demand to 强劲需求支撑平均 support average rents 租金 Peng Jiang Manager | East China 江鹏 经理 | 华东区 Following three quarters of heavy supply, only two 继连续三个季度的大量供应后，2017 年第四季度仅有两 new completions entered Shanghai’s CBD market 个新项目进入上海核心区甲级写字楼市场；而在经济健 during Q4 2017. Meanwhile demand had a strong 康发展的驱动下，需求则产生强势反弹——四季度录得 rebound due to healthy economic growth - net absorption of 127,000 sq m (1.37 million sq ft) was 净吸纳量12.7 万平方米（137 万平方英尺），环比与同 recorded in Q4, up 42% QOQ or 110% YOY. Driven 比分别上升42%与110.3%。受需求的推动，租金环比提 by demand, rent picked up by 0.6% QOQ but fell by 升0.6%或同比下降2.2%至人民币 10.21 元每平方米每 2.2% YOY to RMB10.21 (USD1.59) per sq metre per day. Looking forward, Colliers expects that demand 天 （1.59 美元）。展望未来，高力国际预计来自金融、 from financial, technology, companies and 科技与灵活办公企业的需求应保持强劲，并将部分抵消 expanding flexible workspace operators will stay 未来三至五年内大量新增供应所产生的影响。我们预测 strong, partially offsetting the impact of heavy supply in the coming three to five years. We predict 2018 年核心区优质写字楼的平均空置率将略有上升，而 flat rent on average and a slight rise of vacancy rate 租金将呈走平态势。 in the CBDs over 2018. Forecast at a glance 预测一览表 Demand 需求 Demand from financial, technology, trading 来自金融、科技、贸易与灵活办公企业的租 and flexible workspace sectors should stay 赁需求将在未来3-5 年内保持强劲，并将部 strong over the next 3-5 years. This will partially offset the heavy new supply 分抵消大量供应所造成的影响 Supply 供应 About 651,000 sq metres (7.0 million sq ft) 2018 年核心区将有65.1 万平方米 （700 万