德银-全球-金融市场-理论研究：债券收益率影响股票的四种方式.pdf

Deutsche Bank Markets Research Global Cross-Discipline Date Thematic Research 28 February 2018 Special Report Four ways bond yields affect stocks Luke Templeman, CPA Research Analyst Bond yields up, stocks down. That casual logic during this months market +44-20-754-17373 turbulence seemed relatively simple. But consider that bond yields and US equity valuations saw a positive correlation in the three decades to 1997, or that Sahil Mahtani inflation–expectations for which were a cause of the recent push up in yields– Research Analyst typically correlates with strong performance in some sectors, like industrials or +44-020-754-51552 materials and technology, while hurting the performance of consumer staples and health care. Things, then, are not so straightforward as bond yields up, stocks Jim Reid down. Strategist +44-20-754-72943 In this piece we explore four perspectives in which bond yields can affect equities and present associated trade ideas immediately after the summary page. We look at the impact from inflation, debt levels, market valuations, and on the reliable dividend paying stocks that have functioned as bond proxies in the last decade. The effects vary depending on the lens us