A stochastic model to optimize forecast and fulfillment of green roof demand推荐.pdfVIP

Urban Forestry Urban Greening 12 (2013) 53–60 Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Urban Forestry Urban Greening j o u r n a l h o m e pa ge: w w w. elsev ier.de/ufug A stochastic model to optimize forecast and fulfillment of green roof demand S.W. Tsang, C.Y. Jim ∗ Department of Geography, University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Keywords: Increasing demand for green roofs in cities has generated pressure on the landscape industry to sup- Demand forecast ply materials in a timely manner. A demand-responsive optimal-inventory model (DOM) is developed Demand-responsive optimal-inventory to predict future demand and optimize contractor inventories of green roof components. Unlike other model (DOM) operations research models, no assumption is made on demand distribution. Instead, a stochastic model Green roof is constructed based on building owners’ behavior and two pertinent extrinsic factors: changing gov- Inventory optimization ernment incentive policy and increasing energy price. When actual demand exceeds predicted value, Operations management undesirable backorder and inventory shortfall emerge. The reverse scenario creates superfluous invento- ries and elevated holding cost. As managers have scanty market data for the relatively new products, they