[经济学]Mankiw economic lecture09 短期经济波动.ppt

Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Short-Run Economic Fluctuations Economic activity fluctuates from year to year. In most years production of goods and services rises. On average over the past 50 years, production in the U.S. economy has grown by about 3 percent per year. In some years normal growth does not occur, indicating a recession. 总需求与总供给 短期经济波动 经济活动每年都有波动 在大多数年份，物品与劳务的产量增加了。 在过去的50年间，美国经济的产量平均每年增长3%左右。 在一些年份，并没有出现这种正常增长，导致衰退。 Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Short-Run Economic Fluctuations A recession is a period of declining real incomes, and rising unemployment. A depression is a severe recession. 总需求与总供给 短期经济波动 衰退——实际GDP下降和失业增加的时期。 萧条——严重的衰退。 THREE KEY FACTS ABOUT ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS Economic fluctuations are irregular and unpredictable. Fluctuations in the economy are often called the business cycle. These fluctuations do not follow regular or easily predictable patterns. 关于经济波动的三个事实 经济波动是无规律的和无法预测的 经济中的波动通常被称为经济周期。 这些波动并不遵循有规律的、易预期的模式。 Figure 1 A Look At Short-Run Economic Fluctuations 图1. 观察短期经济波动 THREE KEY FACTS ABOUT ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS Most macroeconomic variables fluctuate together. Most macroeconomic variables that measure some type of income or production fluctuate closely together. Although many macroeconomic variables fluctuate together, they fluctuate by different amounts. 关于经济波动的三个事实 大多数宏观经济变量同时波动 大多数衡量某种收入或生产波动的变量几乎是同时波动的。 虽然许多宏观经济变量同时变动，但它们波动的幅度并不相同。 Figure 1 A Look At Short-Run Economic Fluctuations 图1. 观察短期经济波动 THREE KEY FACTS ABOUT ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS As output falls, unemployment rises. Changes in real GDP are inversely related to changes in the unemployment rate. During times of recession, unemployment rises substantially. 关于经济波动的三个事实 随着产量减少，失业增加。 实际GDP的变化与失业率的变化是反向相关的。 在衰退期间，失业率大幅上升。 Figure 1 A Look At Short-Run Economic Fluctuations 图1. 观察短期经济波动 EXPLAINING SHORT-RUN ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS The Assumptions of Classical Economics Most economists believe that classical theory describes the world in the long run but