ひずみ集中域と大地震発生域との相関どちらが原因か？.pptxVIP

Spatial Correlation between Strained Regions and Large Shallow Crustal Earthquakes in Japan: Which is the cause ?;　　Niigata-Kobe tectonic zone from short-term GPS observation （Sagiya et al., 2000)　 　　Is this a permanent feature? We examine it from long-term historical seismicity data.;Relationship between strain rate and moment release rate Earthquake occurrence rate can be estimated from moment release rate, b-value and the G-R relationship Flowchart of quantitative comparison of location of historical large earthquakes with strain rate observed by GPS network;GPS data;Deformation rate is estimated from GEONET data (1994-1999) by Geographical Survey Institute (GSI);Spatially smoothed (red) by using Elfiky and Kato (1999);GPS data;GPS data;Earthquake occurrence probability can be estimated from moment release rate and the G-R relationship (b-value is assumed to be 0.9);GPS data;Historical earthquakes data;1596- 1670- 1729-　 1828- 1896- ;Quantitative discussion by using dAIC Strain release model estimated from GPS data vs. no information model (earthquake occurrence rate is uniform throughout Japan) ;1596- 1670- 1729- 1828- 1896-;1596- 1670- 1729- 1828- 1896-;/y;excluding the effect of subduction of oceanic plate;1596- 1670- 1729- 1828-　　 1896-;Activity and distribution of late Quaternary active fault (left) and earthquake occurrence rate based on horizontal strain (right).;;Conclusion ;Thatcher, Matsuda, Kato, and Rundle (1980);1596- 1670- 1729- 1828- 1896-