那提西银行-全球-经济理论-当这个世界充分就业时会发生什 么？.pdfVIP

Flash Economics What happens when the world is at full employment? 14 March 2018 - 279 Globally, the unemployment rate is at record lows, which means that the global economy is very close to structural unemployment. What happens in this configuration?  At best, global growth can be equal to global potential growth, which, given trend productivity gains and demographics, is around 2.5% per year (compared with global growth of almost 4% at end- 2017). It is possible, moreover, that the growth slowdown will trigger a cyclical fluctuation;  Despite the world’s return to full employment, there is no sign of labour costs or inflation accelerating;  If demand-side policies are expansionary in one country that is at full employment, either inflation or a deterioration in that country’s foreign trade will ensue. But if demand-side policies are expansionary globally while the world is at full employment, then real interest rates could be