[交通运输]航班延误与时刻设计.pptVIP

10/13/2002 Robust Aircraft Maintenance Routing New Approaches to Improving the Robustness of Airline Schedules Prof. John-Paul ClarkeDepartment of Aeronautics AstronauticsMassachusetts Institute of Technology Outline Background Motivation Robust Maintenance Routing Flight Schedule Re-Timing Degradable Airline Schedule Conclusions Airline Schedule Planning Process Most existing airline schedule planning methods assume that aircraft, crews, and passengers will operate as planned Airline Operations Bad weather reduces airport capacity Airlines cancel or delay flights to reduce demand Delays propagate through the network Airlines must reschedule aircraft/crew and re-accommodate passengers Passengers are not satisfied They are delayed They have no control over their delay All passengers on a given aircraft are delayed equally regardless of fare class Delays Cancellations Trend (1995-1999) Significant increase (100%) in flights delayed more than 45 min Significant increase (500%) in the number of cancelled flights Year 2000 30% of flights delayed 3.5% of flights (approx. 140,000) cancelled Future: Delays and cancellations may increase dramatically ? more frequent and serious schedule disruptions and revenue loss Passenger Disruptions Flight delays and cancellations often cause passenger schedule disruptions 26 million passengers (4% of passengers) disrupted 65% of disruptions caused by missed connections Very long delays for disrupted passengers Average delay for disrupted passengers is approx. 4 hours (versus 15 min delay for non-disrupted passengers) Significant revenue loss - approx. $4 Billion /year Robustness Need schedules that are robust (insensitive) to delays and cancellations Definitions of robustness Minimize cost (expected/worst case deviations from optimal) Minimize aircraft/passenger delays and disruptions Easy to recover (aircraft, crew, passenger) Isolate disruptions and reduce the downstream impact Two ways to provide robustness Re-optimi