清华经济学原理一学期.Chapter35章节幻灯片.pptxVIP

35通货膨胀与失业之间的短期权衡The Short-Run Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment失业与通货膨胀Unemployment and Inflation 两个密切受到注视的经济状况指标是通货膨胀和失业。Two closely watched indicators of economic performance are inflation and unemployment.将通货膨胀率和失业率相加得到痛苦指数，它是经济“健康”的一个衡量指标。The misery index, one measure of the “health” of the economy, adds together the inflation rate and unemployment rate.失业与通货膨胀Unemployment and Inflation 通胀与失业的关系这一话题吸引了过去半个世纪最重要的一些经济学家的注意力。关于通胀与失业的思想史不可避免地和美国经济的历史相联系。这两种历史将说明为什么通货膨胀与失业之间的权衡取舍在短期中成立而在长期中不成立。失业与通货膨胀：长期Unemployment and Inflation: The Long-run 自然失业率依赖于劳动力市场的各种特征。The natural rate of unemployment depends on various features of the labor market.例如，最低工资法、工会的市场权力、效率工资的作用、寻找工作的有效性。Examples include minimum-wage laws, the market power of unions, the role of efficiency wages, and the effectiveness of job search.失业与通货膨胀：长期Unemployment and Inflation: The Long-run 通货膨胀率主要依赖于货币数量的增长，它是由美联储控制的。The inflation rate depends primarily on growth in the quantity of money, controlled by the Fed.因此，在长期中，通货膨胀和失业基本是互不相关的问题。In the long run, therefore, inflation and unemployment are largely unrelated problems.失业与通货膨胀：短期Unemployment and Inflation: The Short-run社会面临着失业与通货膨胀之间的短期权衡。Society faces a short-run tradeoff between unemployment and inflation.如果政策制定者扩张总需求，他们能够降低失业，但必须以更高的通货膨胀为代价。If policymakers expand aggregate demand, they can lower unemployment, but only at the cost of higher inflation.如果他们紧缩总需求，他们能够降低通货膨胀，但必须以暂时更高的失业率为代价。If they contract aggregate demand, they can lower inflation, but at the cost of temporarily higher unemployment.菲利普斯曲线The Phillips Curve1958年，A·W·菲利普斯将英国自1861至1957年历年的通货膨胀率与失业率绘制成图。In 1958, A.W. Phillips drew a diagram plotting the rate of inflation against the rate of unemployment in the United Kingdom for each year from 1861 to 1957.他发现通货膨胀率与失业率之间有明显的负相关关系：当失业率低时，通货膨胀率高，而当失业率高时，通货膨胀低，甚至经常是负的。He found clear evidence of a negative relation between inflation and unemployment: When unemployment was low, inflation was high, and when unemployment was high, inflati