使用QPESUMS雨量资料建立崩塌灾害预警模式-中华水土保持学会.PDFVIP

44 中華水土保持學報, 48(1): 44-55 (2017) Journal of Chinese Soil and Water Conservation, 48 (1): 44-55 (2017) 使用 QPESUMS 雨量資料建立崩塌災害預警模式 陳振宇 [1]* 劉維則[1][2] 許家祥[3] 摘 要 台灣自 2005 年起採用 RTI 模式設定各鄉鎮雨量警戒值，並建立土石流紅黃警戒發布機制，已有效 降低民眾傷亡。惟 RTI 模式之有效累積雨量係以逐日折減方式納入前七日之降雨，在某些特殊型態雨場常導 致警戒誤報率偏高。為此，本研究提出以逐時折減之有效累積雨量修正公式，並建立以 QPESUMS 網格為警 戒發布單元之坡地災害預警模式；以 2015 年蘇迪勒颱風重創之烏來山區為例，本模式可有效預測災害發生之 時間及區域，並以視覺化方式呈現降雨致災熱區，有助於各級政府應變中心之災情預判與決策分析。 關鍵詞：崩塌、土石流、預警系統、QPESUMS 、有效累積雨量。 A Rainfall-based Warning Model for Predicting Landslides Using QPESUMS Rainfall Data Chen-Yu Chen[1]* Wei-Ze Liou [1][2] Chia-Hsiang Hsu [3] ABSTRACT The Rainfall Triggering Index (RTI) model is adopted to set up the critical rainfall for each township since 2005 in Taiwan, and the debris-flow warning system based on the RTI model is successful in reducing casualties. However, the antecedent rainfall calculation using the deduction coefficient of t days in the RTI model leads to a false alert rate higher under some rainfall patterns (e.g., long-term duration and lower rainfall intensity). This study suggests a modified method to calculate the antecedent rainfall and effective accumulated rainfall to solve the above- mentioned problems. We also establish a new warning model, which uses the QPESUM data for the past decade, the identified results of remote-sensing image, and the disaster records, to predict landslides. In the case study of the Wulai District during Typhon Soudelor in 2015, the new warning model offers good prediction of the times and locations of landslides. This study also proposes a new plat