Epidemics as Diffusion Waves - Instructional Web Server -：扩散波教学网站服务器的流行病—.pptVIP

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Epidemics as Diffusion Waves - Instructional Web Server -：扩散波教学网站服务器的流行病—.ppt

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MEASLES AS A TRACKER EPIDEMIC DISEASE Given the wide range of infectious diseases available for study, it is notable that much attention in epidemic modelling on a single disease is that caused by the measles virus. With the overall fall in measles mortality in Western countries over this century, the widespread choice of measles as a marker disease might well seem somewhat puzzling. In fact, there are seven reasons why it forms the disease of choice for studying epidemic waves. Measles as a Tracker Epidemic Disease Reasons why measles is the disease of choice for studying epidemic waves. 1. Virological 2. Eipdemiological 3. Clinical 4. Statistical 5. Geographical 6. Methematical 7. Humanitarian Virological Reasons why measles is the disease of choice for studying epidemic waves. Measles has been referred to as the simplest of all the infectious diseases. The World Health Organization observed that the epidemiological behaviour of measles is undoubtedly simpler than that of any other disease. Its almost invariably direct transmission, the relatively fixed duration of infectivity, the lasting immunity which it generally confers, have made it possible to lay the foundations of a statistical theory of epidemics. Virological reasons … It is, therefore, a disease whose spread can be modelled more readily than others. As far as present knowledge extends, the measles virus is not thought to undergo significant changes in structure. This assumption is strengthened by the fact that although laboratory research has produced measles viruses with attenuation- decreased virulence- no changes in basic type have yet been recorded. Characteristics of a measles epidemic. (A) Disease spread at the individual level. Typical time profile of infection in a host individual. Note the time breaks and different scales for time duration within each phase of the overall lifespan (M, maternal protection; S, susceptible; L, latent; I, infectious; R, recovered). (B) T