Supply of Labour by Education受教育的劳动力供给.pptVIP

Fordrag et eller annet sted Supply of Labour by Education Dennis Fredriksen, Hege Marie Gjefsen and Nils Martin St?len Statistics Norway European Meeting of the International Microsimulation Association Dublin, Ireland, May 17-19 2012 Background Most OECD-countries Increased demand for high-skilled labour Reduced demand and higher unemployment for low-skilled Increased wage differences Norway Also increased demand for high-skilled and reduced demand for low-skilled Smaller differences in wage and unemployment rates Probably reflecting strong growth in supply of high-skilled Employment by level of education 1972-2007.1000 persons Hourly wages by educational levelPercent of hourly wages for workers with higher tertiary education Planning models to project supply and demand for labour by education Main aim: Avoid severe imbalances in the future Demand side: Employment in different industries projected by macroeconomic models Only possible to handle a classification by few kinds of education in a macroeconomic model Further division in a sub-model assuming that trends in changes in the shares of education continue Supply side: A dynamic microsimulation model is an efficient tool in analysing and projecting supply of labour by education Education classified by level is included in most dynamic microsimulation models Dynamic microsimulation opens for far more flexibility compared to traditional cohort component methods Able to handle more detailed classification of education in combination with classifications along other dimensions Education important for the probability to work, kind of work, level of earnings and retirement Traditions for projecting population by education i Norway since the 1970s Analysed and projected by the dynamic microsimulation model MOSART since the beginning of the 1990s Education in the dynamic microsimulation model MOSART 5 main levels of education subdivided into educational fields A total of about 30 educational groups in the model Re