Revenue Forecasting收入预测.pptVIP

Revenue Forecasting Estimating Tax Expenditure Budgets Revenue Forecasts A.K.A. baselines Used to forecast revenue collections in a fiscal year (or other budget period) Assume no changes in tax policies * Considerations Precision/accuracy Conservatism Generalizability Ease of computation * Considerations, cont. Time frame (short-term projections are more likely to be accurate, long term projections require simpler methods due to the imprecision inherent in them) Tenable assumptions * Methods: Projections Extrapolations A.K.A. “deterministic models” Examples Moving averages Simple regression (with time as independent variable) * Methods: Multiple Regression Assume that revenue is a function of the independent variables Selection of independent variables is important * Other Methods Econometric models Simulations * Estimating Predicts the effects of changes in tax laws /or tax administration procedures Methods differ in terms of assumptions re. changes in taxpayer, etc. behavior as a result of the new laws Static Dynamic * Tax Expenditure Budgeting Calculates revenue losses due to policy decisions re. deductions, exemptions, abatements, etc. “Benchmark” budget is what revenues would be without policy-based erosion * *