美国经济是否能走出对外的困境.pdfVIP

The Levy Economics Institute of Bard Co ege Strategic Analysis Novembe 2007 THE U.S. ECONOMY: IS THERE A WAY OUT OF THE WOODS?  ,  . ,  , and   During the last 10 years, the Levy Institute has published a series of papers on the evolving strategic predicaments facing the U.S. economy. Our work has never really taken hold in the United States, which may be a consequence of the unrepentantly Keynesian structure of our model, by which we continue to stand although it is not currently fashionable. But it may also be a result of the rather parochial attitude of many U.S. economists and institutions. In any event, it is high time we looked back on our endeavor and made an evaluation of it. Some repetition is unavoidable. Methods and Concepts Our assessments of the U.S. economy have not so far focused on short-term prospects, and this has distinguished our work from that of commentators whose evaluation is based on monthly and quarterly indicators. Up to now, we have concentrated on the medium term, trying to diagnose whether or not the configuration of “drivers”—the forces generating expansion or contraction— would be sustainable in the medium term, and hence whether the overall stance of fiscal and mone- tary policy was viable looking forward to a strategic time horizon, and what changes in policy, if any, should come under consideration. Looking back, we may have erred in not being more explicit about the model we use.1 The following skeleton may be useful. The Levy Institute’s Macro-Modeling Team consists of Distinguished Scholar  , President  . , and Research Scholars   and  . All questions and correspondence should be directed to Professor Papadimitriou at 845-758-7700 or dbp@. The authors are grateful for comments