不确定条件下青岛市水资源优化配置分析-管理科学与工程专业论文 word格式.docx

山东科技大学摘要摘要水是生命之源，是实现社会可持续发展的源泉，青岛市是我国严重缺水城市之一，水资源的供需矛盾逐渐成为影响经济社会可持续发展的重要制约性因素。面临日益加剧的水资源短缺，青岛市逐步发展非常规供水源，如跨流域水、淡化水、中水等，以弥补当地水源的不足，形成了多水源多用户的供需水特点。然而，供水量还是难以满足各类用户的需水要求，这就要求进行水资源优化配置，既满足用户的基本需求又要以最小的费用产生最大的效益。本文以青岛市为依托，首先分析了青岛市地表水及地下水、引黄水、南水北调、海水淡化和中水等供水水源，并对其2015水平年和2020水平年的供水能力进行了预测；其次在对居民生活、工业、农业及生态环境四类用户进行2015水平年和2020水平年需水预测的基础上，结合水资源优化配置理论及方法和双层规划理论，从三个角度呈递进式进行描述青岛市供需水结构优化配置模型，并结合区间规划理论，采用区间数描述水资源系统的不确定因素，最终建立了不确定条件下青岛市多水源多用户区间双层规划模型，选择青岛市五种水源四类用户进行供需水结构优化模拟。最后根据结果分析，提出了相关政策建议，为青岛市水资源配置提供一定意义上的参考。关键词：不确定；双层规划；区间规划；水资源优化配置山东科技大学摘要ABSTRACTWaterresourcesasthesourceoflife,arethesourceofrealizingthesustainabledevelopment.QingdaoisoneoftheseverewatershortagescitiesinChina.Thecontradictionbetweensupplyanddemandofwater resourceshasbecomeinfluenceofsustainableeconomicandsocialdevelopmentofimportantrestrictivefactors.Facedwithincreasingtheshortageofwaterresources,Qingdaograduallydevelopedabnormalwatersupply,suchasinter-basinwater,desalinationwater,reclaimedwaterandsoon,inordertomakeupforthedeficiencyofthelocalwater, formedmuchwatersupplyanddemandofwatercharacteristicsofmanyusers.However,watersupplystillhardtomeetalltypesofuserswaterrequirements,itrequirestheoptimalallocationofwaterresources,whichcanmeetthebasicneedsofusersandwiththeminimumcosttoproducethemaximumbenefit.ThispaperstudyofQingdaocity,firstanalysisoftheQingdaosurfaceandundergroundwater,YellowRiverdiversionwater,south-to-northwaterdiversion,desalinationwater,reclaimedwaterandotherwatersupplyresources,andpredictethe2015levelyearsand2020levelyearsofwatersupplycapacity.Theninthebasicofthe2015levelyearsand2020levelyearsofwaterdemandforecastinginfourtypesusers:residentsliving,industry,agricultureandecologicalenvironment,combinedwiththetheoryandmethodofoptimalallocationofwaterresourcesandandbi-levelprogrammingtheory,thepaperfromthreeanglesfiledintothetypedescribewatersupplyanddemandstructureoptimizationallocationmodelofQingdaocityandcombinedwithintervalplanningtheory,theintervalnumberofwaterresourcessystemdescription