基于MultinomialLogit模型的校车通学影响因素研究-北京交通工程学会.PDFVIP

第15卷 第4期 道 路 交 通 与 安 全 Vol.15 No.4 2015年 8月 摇 摇 Aug. 2015 DOI:10.13986/ ki.jote.2015.04.006 基于Multinomial Logit模型的校车通学影响因素 研究 李金海,陈永胜,唐琤琤,矫城武 (交通运输部公路科学研究院,北京摇 100044) 摘摇 要:以某小学为例,研究了开通校车后影响校车通学的主要因素. 研究首先通过RP调查(Revealed Preference Survey)总结分析了学生的家庭社会经济特征以及通学现状特征,基于此开展了针对通学交通方式选择的SP调查 (Stated Preference Survey). 在此基础上建立了通学方式选择的Multinomial Logit(MNL)模型. 模型表明,学生就读 年级、当前接送状况、乘坐校车时长以及校车票价直接影响到学生对校车的选择. 低年级学生及目前由家长接送通 学的学生,乘坐校车的期望相对更高. 最后,本文探讨了校车票价对于交通方式分担率的影响. 分析结论表明,校 车分担率随其单程票价的提高呈单调递减趋势,电动自行车和步行是校车最具竞争力的通学方式,随着校车票价 的增加,二者分担率有显著提高. 关键词:校车;SP调查;通学;交通方式选择;MNL模型 中图分类号:U268郾6 文献标志码:A 文章编号:1008鄄2522(2015)04鄄32鄄06 Study on Key Factors Affecting School Bus Choices by Multinomial Logit Model LI Jin鄄hai,CHEN Yong鄄sheng,TANG Cheng鄄cheng,JIAO Cheng鄄wu (Research Institute of Highway,Ministry of Transport,Beijing 100044,China) Abstract:This paper analyzes the key factors affecting school bus services based on a case study of a typical elementary school in China. The paper studies firstly the household socio鄄demographic characteristics as well as current school transport characteristics by conducting a Revealed Preference (RP) survey. Based on findings in the RP survey, another Stated Preference (SP) survey is also designed and conducted to study the mode choice behaviors of school transport. A Multinomial Logit (MNL) model is then developed,revealing that grade,current escort situation,in鄄vehicle time,and school busfaresignificantlyinfluenceschoolbuschoice. Also,themodelreflectsthatstudentswhoarein lower gradesaswell asthosewho areescortedby parentshave strongerwillingnesstotravelby schoolbus when school bus service is available. Finally,this paper studies the effects of school b