世界能源展望——美国能源信息署.pdfVIP

Annual Energy Outlook 2010 Reference Case The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies December 14, 2009 Washington, DC Richard Newell, Administrator Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009 1 How does the AEO2010 reference case handle public policy and technology? • Generally assumes current laws and regulations – provisions sunset if specified (e.g., renewable tax credits expire) – excludes potential future laws and regulations (e.g., proposed greenhouse gas legislation is not included) – some grey areas • adopts proposed regulations that are not yet final, in order to inform the likely implementation of a statute • adds a premium to the capital cost of CO2-intensive technologies to reflect market behavior regarding possible CO2 regulation • assumes implementation of existing regulations that enable building new energy infrastructure and resource extraction • Includes technologies that are commercial or reasonably expected to become commercial in the next decade or so – includes cost and efficiency improvements from learning, but not revolutionary or breakthrough technologies Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009 2 Key updates included in the AEO2010 reference case • Extended projection period to 2035 • Changes in Federal and State laws and regulations – revised handling of fuel economy standards to reflect the proposal for light-duty vehicles in model years 2012-2016 – assumes permission will be granted to extend nuclear power unit operating licenses beyond 60 years; no retirements through 2035 • Revised capital costs for capital-intensive projects