基于公交IC卡数据的城市轨道交通需求分析毕业论文.doc

基于公交数据的城市轨道交通需求分析 摘要 本课题旨在利用上海市工作日全天的轨道交通IC卡刷卡数据，结合包含地理信息的城市轨道交通路网地图，对上海市轨道交通需求进行分析。在数据预处理过程中，利用ArcGIS数据导入TransCAD软件中，生成进行分析所必需的路线系统和公交网络；对IC卡数据进行OD格式转换和合并出行等处理。在描述性统计分析阶段，除了在SPSS软件中利用IC卡数据对全天总体的出行特征进行分析，还通过分区域、分线路、分站点的对比分析得出轨道交通出行的在出行频率、出行时间、出行时长和出行距离等各方面的特征。在客流路网分配阶段，通过结合在TransCAD路网上生成的路线系统和公交网络，利用TransCAD软件画出全天客流主要的OD期望线来分析轨道交通需求的主要OD对情况。最后，分别采用最短路径模型和最优策略模型对客流进行分配，得到客流在路网中可能出现的分配情况。本课题研究的目的是为了得到对上海市城市轨道交通需求特征的全面把握，找出在轨道交通需求中存在的特点，以便对未来的分析和研究提供思路和切入点。 关键词：城市轨道交通，IC卡数据，需求分析，客流分配  Demand Analysis of Urban Metro System Based on Transit Smart Card Data ABSTRACT This study aims to analyze demands of metro systems by using smart card data integrated with the geographical metro maps. The smart card data was collected in Shanghai for a whole weekday. In the process of data pretreatment, geographical information in ArcGIS are imported to TransCAD to form the route system and the transit network which will be indispensable in the latter analysis. The smart card data will be converted into OD format and two records of the same trip will be merged. In descriptive statistical analysis, the smart card data will be used to analyze general features of travel patterns of metro passengers in the whole day through SPSS. Besides, features like frequency, time, duration and distance will be drawn from the comparative analysis among areas, lines and stops. In order to get a deeper understanding of the characteristics of metro demands, desire lines of OD pairs will be drawn on the map to show the critical origins and destinations. At last, two different methods will be used in transit assignment, that is, shortest path model and optimal strategies model, combined with the base map formed. The goal of this study is to achieve an overall understanding of demands of Shanghai Metro System and find out its characteristics. In the future, further analysis and study can be conducted based on these findings. Key words: urban metro system, transit smart card data, demand analysis, transit ass