教育别失业率.PPT

Chapter 12 Unemployment Unemployment in the U.S. 1900 - 2007 台灣失業率(1078-2009) Unemployment Rates by Education Attainment, 1970-2007 教育別失業率(1978-2010) Structural Unemployment Structural unemployment arises when there is an imbalance between the supply of workers and the demand for workers or when unemployment arises because of a mismatch between worker skills and the skills needed by firms. 產業結構變動對失業影響的兩個層面 第一層為當產業結構持續單向調整，成長的持續成長、衰退的持續衰退， 若勞動因知識技能的限制使其在部門間的移轉比例過低，則此種失業會持續發生，且知識技能差異程度越大，移轉比例越低，造成的失業更多。 第二層則為產業結構調整的速度，如果產業結構調整速度很快， 但是勞動因人力資本累積不易而無法在短期調整，出現結構性失業的問題。 從三級產業結構的變化觀之 1980年代中期以前農業部門佔GDP的比重逐年下降，取而代之的為工業及製造業部門，農業部門所釋放的勞動人口可由部分低技術工業及製造業所吸收，因此整體失業率多維持在2%上下； 1987年以後，農業部門所佔比重仍持續下降，同時工業部門也同時出現下降趨勢，服務業部門開始大幅度成長，但由於服務業部門對勞動的基礎知識要求較高，農業與工業部門所釋放的勞動力無法有效轉入服務部門，因而產生大量結構性失業，也使長期失業率出現逐年攀升的現象。 除了隨經濟發展產生的產業變遷外，台灣產業的生產結構也逐步從低技術人力密集產業轉成高資本或高技術人力密集產業，新崛起的服務部門也由傳統型服務業轉變成專業型服務業，因此使得勞動於部門間的移轉更加困難。 資料來源：.tw/digest_view.php?serial=179 The Sectoral Shifts Hypothesis The sectoral shifts hypothesis argues that structural unemployment arises because the skills of workers cannot be easily transferred across sectors. The skills of workers laid off from declining industries have to be retooled before they can find jobs in growing industries. Unemployed Persons by Reason for Unemployment, 1967-2007 Unemployment Duration Although most spells of unemployment do not last very long, most weeks of unemployment can be attributed to workers who are in very long spells. Unemployed Persons by Duration of Unemployment, 1948-2007 The steady-state rate of unemployment The steady-state rate of unemployment depends on the transition probabilities among employment, unemployment, and the nonmarket sector. ? ? E = h ? U E= LF-U steady-state u = ? Flows Between Employment and Unemployment Dynamic Flows in the U.S. Labor Market, May 1993 Job Search The asking wage makes the worker indiff