硕士学位论文-城投债风险分析汇.doc

上海交通大学硕士学位论文Dissertation Submitted to Shanghai Jiao Tong University for the Degree of Master DISSERTATION TEMPLATE FOR MASTER DEGREE OF ENGINEERING IN SHANGHAI JIAO TONG UNIVERSITY Candidate： □□□ Student ID： □□□□□□□□□□ Supervisor： Prof.□□□ Assistant Supervisor： Prof. Academic Degree Applied for： Master of Engineering Speciality： Circuits and System Affiliation： School of Microelectronics Date of Defence： Jan， 2010 Degree-Conferring-Institution： Shanghai Jiao Tong University 城投债风险分析 摘 要 在快速推进市政建设及在我国城市化的过程中，城投债是我国地方政府为加快筹措资金，以发债形式而建立的地方政府投融资平台，它是获取建设公用事业与市政项目资金的一种有效融资工具。城投债是为避免现行法律法规的限制及促进城市化建设快速发展等目的而产生。但是由于城投债存在诸多问题，如发行规模的膨胀式发展、高信用评级与高偿债风险之间的矛盾、投资者对其信用评级的质疑等，城投债的信用风险嫣然已是世界上专家学者研究的重要问题。 本文概述了城投债发展的历程和趋势。然后对为什么会出现城投债以及它的发展过程和现在的状况进行了解得出结论，对城市建设投资债券信用风险的成因进行了分析。其次，通过构建KMV模型，并进行分析，得到了Knight不确定下城投债KMV信用风险测量模型，为使模型能更加的符合实际情况中的金融市场，对重庆市投债的信用风险进行了一系列的调查及研究，和当前的重庆市城投债信用风险的实证结果结合起来作了论证及分析。最后，通过分别对日本夕张市、希腊、美国底特律债务危机进行分析，总结出了对我国地方债务的经验。最后本文从监管层层面、地方政府层面等多个层面提出了城投债信用风险防范对策和建议。 关键词 城投债；信用风险；KMV模型；债务危机 Risk analysis for debt city ABSTRACT In municipal construction and the rapid advance in the process of urbanization in our country，urban construction investment bonds is to raise funds for local government to speed up in our country，in the form of a debt and a set of local government investment and financing platform，its utility and municipal project construction is to obtain an effective financing tool. Urban construction investment bonds is to avoid the restrictions of the current laws and regulations and the rapid development of urbanization for such purposes. But because the city debt has many problems，such as the development with the expansion of the issuance，the contradiction between the high credit rating and the high debt risk，investors have questioned its credit rating，etc.，udic debt issuers of credit risk caused the focus of the domestic scholars and media attention. This paper first introduces the concept of udic debt and development course and developme