2011(上)经济学期末.ppt

Why the are so important? The Phillips Curve History  William phillips ,a New Zealand born economist, wrote a paper in 1958 titled?The Relationship between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wages in the United Kingdom 1861–1957, which was published in the quarterly journal?Economic. Two points: The curve crosses the horizontal axis at a positive value for the unemployment rate. The shape of the curve means that the lower the level of unemployment, the higher the rate of increase in inflation. Philips curve: US (1994—2009) From this figure, we can see the obvious negative ?correlation. Oil crisis New knowledge analysis The main causes of low unemployment: the development of high and new technology the increasing of export the appropriate monetary policy etc. The main causes of low inflation: the reform of financial system appreciation of U . S. dollars the decreasing price of the import products etc. The expectations augmented Phillips curve * * LOGO （Use Phillips Curves) LOGO 32009141219 张恺32009141135 周颖 32009141135 隋佳君 32009141136 周雪梅 Inflation 01 Unemployment 02 Title in here He, she and me got a job economic growth  He and she lose their job, but no me . I’m happy Everything is expensive Company cuts labor payments Inflation rate Purchase power ↑ ↑ Unemployment Rate↑ The government increases employment economic recession  Inflation rate ↓ They get a new job , I’m still happy! Unemployment Rate ↓ ⒈ ⒉ ⒏ ⒊ ⒋ ⒌ ⒍ ⒎ ⒐ ⒑ ⒒ Social stability↓ ⒓ ⒔ Definition: a graphical illustration of the inverse relationship which historically existed between the rate of wage inflation and the rate of unemployment Higher inflation associated with lower unemployment Lower inflation associated with higher unemployment Inflation unemployment U1 U P2 P1 P PC PC1 Shift in the Phillips curve Cost-push inflation?is a type of?inflation?caused by substantial increases in the cost of important goods?or services