基于财务指标的上市公司财务风险分析与预警-毕业论文.docVIP

本科毕业设计 （20 届） 基于财务指标的上市公司财务风险分析与预警 The Analysis and Early Warning of Listing Enterprises’ Financial Risks Based on Financial Ratios 所在学院 专业班级 工商管理 学生姓名 学号 指导教师 职称 完成日期 年 月 基于财务指标的上市公司财务风险分析与预警 【摘要】对于现代企业，特别是上市公司而言，抵御财务风险、确保财务状况稳定是相当重要的。本文在界定了财务风险的含义之后，选取了偿债能力、盈利能力、营运能力以及现金流量能力四大类指标中的13个指标，对沪交所2008年和2009年新增的共44家ST公司以及其配对非ST公司的财务指标体系特点进行实证研究。本文先后运用趋势分析、配对样本T检验、相关性分析等方法，结合应用统计分析软件SPSS13.0，分析了上市公司财务风险并构建了t-2年和t-1年的财务风险预警模型。t-2年的预警模型为Y2=0.505-0.820X3+3.189X5-0.236X10+1.884X12；t-1年的预警模型为Y1=0.396+0.210X2+0.111X3+5.985X5-0.313X10+0.381X12+0.094X13；其中X2=速动比率、X3=资产负债率、X5=资产净利率、X10=总资产周转率、X12=经营现金净流量与流动负债的比率以及X13=经营现金净流量与总资产的比率。经过检验，这两个模型的准确率均高于75%。 【关键词】财务指标；财务风险；ST公司；T检验；预警。 The Analysis and Early Warning of Listing Enterprises’ Financial Risks Based on Financial Ratios Abstract 【ABSTRACT】For modern enterprises, especially for those listing companies, it is really important to resist financial risks and ensure financial stabilization. After identifying the concept of financial risks, the paper chooses 13 financial ratios from four big categories—solvency, profitability, operating capacity and cash flow capabilities—to make an empirical study for the characteristics of financial ratio system. The research samples are 44 new ST companies in 2008 and 2009 and paired NST companies from Shanghai Stock Exchange. Taking the use of SPSS13.0, the paper has analyzed financial risks of listing enterprises and constructed the early warning models of the t-2 and t-1 year by the means of trend analysis, paired sample T-test and correlation analysis. The prediction model of t-2 year is Y2=0.505-0.820X3+3.189X5-0.236X10+1.884X12 and the t-1 year’s is Y1=0.396+0.210X2+0.111X3+5.985X5-0.313X10+0.381X12+0.094X13. And X2=quick assets/current liabilities; X3=assets/liabilities; X5=net profit/average asstes; X10=revenue/average assets; X12=net operating cash flows/average curr