Overview of Census Evaluationthrough Demographic Analysi：人口普查evaluationthrough人口分析概述.ppt

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Cohort Component Method Data required: Population enumerated in two successive censuses by age (either single or five-year age groups) and sex Life table survival rates by sex assumed representative of intercensal period Age-specific fertility rate schedule for women 15-49 years assumed to represent level and age structure of fertility during intercensal period Estimate of sex-ratio at birth Estimates of intercensal level and age pattern of net international migration Cohort Component Method (Contd.) Computational Procedure: Step 1 – survival of population enumerated in first census on a cohort-by-cohort basis to second census based on age-specific survival rates from life table assumed representative of intercensal mortality conditions in population under study Step 2 – Adjustment of “surviving” cohort populations to take into account intercensal migration Step 3 – Estimation of intercensal number and timing of births on basis of assumed schedule of fertility rates and projected intercensal child-bearing age female population. Births are survived to second census to yield estimate of children under specified age at second census Cohort Component Method (Contd.) Concerns: Like population balancing equation, estimates of error for cohort component method are “residual” estimates which are affected by accuracy of information on components of change and of first census. Serious concern in countries with unreliable vital statistics where indirect fertility/mortality estimates are used Indirect estimates may be unreliable due to violation of assumptions underlying techniques and errors in underlying data (age reporting, fertility, mortality data) Estimating net migration is particularly problematic Like for population balancing equation, estimates of error are estimates of relative or differential error between the two censuses Analysis of Cohort Survival Rates Based upon comparison of the size of birth cohorts