基于保障性需求的或有风险型信贷分析-analysis of contingent risk credit based on indemnificatory demand.docxVIP

Social Security Demand and Risk Contingent Credit摘要作为缓解贫困、提高低收入者风险抵抗能力的重要途径，小额信贷已成为 我国农村金融体系的重要组成部分，为促进农民增收、推进城乡统筹、加速农 村经济发展提供有力的金融支持。然而，虽然我国小额贷款供给规模在近些年 不断扩大，但却总是面临信贷产品单一、无法向市场化利率靠拢且无法有效化 解信贷风险的窘境，原因在于：一方面，农户预防健康医疗等风险的保障性需 求并未获得足够重视，故无法解决农户的后顾之忧进而刺激农户与生产相关的 信贷行为；另一方面，小额贷款主体分散、担保薄弱、期限较短的特点，加重 了金融机构发放小额贷款成本及其面临的信用风险，因此小额贷款的发放主体 主要是政策性银行、邮储和农信社，贷款渠道的不足进一步将无力提供抵押担 保的低收入者、城乡微型企业以及个体工商户等中低收入群体排斥于信贷服务 之外，限制了他们的发展机会。因此，本文旨在设计一种能够兼顾保障需求和 扩大生产以及风险可控的产品，从而在刺激农户有效的信贷需求的同时降低信 贷机构所面临金融风险。基于上述研究目的，本文首先讨论了保障性需求对生 产与信贷的基础性作用，而后通过实际调研数据描述农户的保障性需求在很大 程度上得不到满足的现状及保障性需求对农户的重要性，进而设计一款嵌入了 医疗保险的信贷产品，并对该款信贷产品进行理论定价。结果发现，其通过定 价测算的利率过高，且产品内容复杂，其实践推广价值不足。因此，文章结合 金融创新、利率市场化及金融机构实践经验，提出刺激信贷需求新途径：商业 银行以互联网金额为依托，开展农户小额信贷 P2P 业务，并对这一方案开发背 景、实践经验及可行性进行探究。最后，提出本文研究不足及相关政策建议。关键词：保障性需求，或有风险型信贷，农户小额贷款，保险，P2P 业务AbstractFarmers’ demand against social security risk such as medical expense volatility is overlooked by credit providers who are facing a dilemma that they have to supply more microcredit but cannot get market-oriented interest rate and transfer financial risk effectively. This paper will provide a structured credit product (risk contingent credit) with an imbedded insurance to meet both farmers’ social security demand which impacts on production and related credit demand and also reduce financial risk of financial institutions.Profit functions involving social security demand and credit demand are analyzed. The subsequent results from survey confirm the importance of social security demand to farmers and the prevalence of medical insurance in rural China. Finally, a structured credit product is priced by using Black-Scholes model.The paper firstly demonstrates social security demand plays critically constraint role in production and related credit choice, and current credit products cannot satisfy farmers’ social security demand. And then, this paper offers a pricing method for the new product.Even though many scholars design risk contingent credit product linked to specific commodities or i