基于低碳经济的欠发达地区经济发展转型研究——以甘肃省为例-research on economic development and transformation in underdeveloped areas based on low carbon economy - a case study of gansu province.docxVIP

摘要通过对甘肃省碳排放与经济增长的脱钩关系分析，得出甘肃省碳排放与经济增长近年来主要表现为弱脱钩状态的结论。同时基于环境库兹尼茨曲线（EKC）的甘肃省碳排放与经济增长的实证分析，得出甘肃省的EKC曲线既不像某些国家所呈现的“U”形或者倒“U”形，也不像东部某些省份所呈现的“N”形或者倒“N”形，而是单调递增的一次形，说明甘肃省碳排放与经济增长表现为正相关的单增关系，甘肃省的减排压力较大和经济发展转型的必要性和紧迫性。基于kaya恒等式并结合LMDI分解法确定二氧化碳排放的影响因素是产业结构、能源结构和能源强度,用VAR模型分析甘肃省1989-2011年间二氧化碳排放影响因素动态冲击效应，研究发现，二氧化碳排放和产业结构、能源结构、技术水平之间存在稳定的动态影响关系。从长期来看，产业结构变化主要对二氧化碳排放表现为正向冲击效应；能源结构对二氧化碳排放的冲击效应趋向平稳，但能源结构对二氧化碳排放的冲击方向不明朗；能源强度总体上表现为稳定的负向冲击效应。短期内二氧化碳排放自身和能源结构的方差贡献率较大，长期来看，产业结构的方差贡献率最大。最后分别从法律政策法规、产业结构、能源结构及消费结构、科技创新等方面对欠发达地区发展低碳经济提出了政策建议。关键词：二氧化碳排放;脱钩理论；环境库兹尼茨曲线;VAR 模型IAbstractAnalyzedthedecouplingrelationshipbetweenthecarbonemissionsandtheeconomicgrowthinGansuprovince,thispaperderivedthattheGansucarbonemissionsandeconomicgrowthstateinrecentyearsismainlyshowedasaweakdecouplingrelation.Atthesametime,basedontheempiricalanalysisoftheEnvironmentalKuznetsCurve(EKC)ofcarbonemissionsandeconomicgrowthinGansuprovince,thispaperderivedthatGansuprovince’sEKCnotlikessomecountries’UshapeorinvertedU-shape,eitherlikessomeeasternprovinces’theN-shapeorinvertedN-shape,butisamonotonicallyincreasingshape.ItmeansthattherelationshipbetweenGansuProvince’scarbonemissionsandeconomicgrowthperformanceispositivelycorrelatedandsingleincreasing.Thepressuretoreduce carbonmissionsandtotransformate economicdevelopmentinGansuprovinceiscomparativelylarge.BasedontheKayaidentitiesandcombiningtheLMDIdecompositionmethod,itshowedthatthefactorsaffectthecarbondioxideemissionsaretheindustrialstructures,theenergystructuresandtheenergyintensity.Theanalysisofthecarbondioxideemissionsfactors’dynamicshockeffectsinGansuprovinceduring1989-2011withtheVARmodelshowedthattherearestabledynamiceffectsrelationshipsamongthecarbondioxideemissions,theindustrialstructures,theenergystructuresandthetechnicallevels.Inthelongrun,changesintheindustrialstructuresmainlyhadpositiveshockeffectsonthecarbondioxideemissions.Theenergystructures’shockeffectsonthecarbondioxideemissionstendtobesmooth.Buttheenergystructure’sshockeffects’directiononthecarbondi