基于系统动力学的中国产业结构调整及碳排放模型分析-analysis of chinas industrial structure adjustment and carbon emission model based on system dynamics.docxVIP

ABSTRACT The aim of this paper is to study the industrial structure upgrading of China by the method of the input-output analysis and the hypothetical extraction method. We studied the input-output table with 21 sectors of China from 2002 to 2010 and introduced some concepts such as demand emissions and output emissions for a in-depth analysis. Finally, we built a system dynamics model to forecast the GDP and carbon emissions of next 20 years. To the end, this paper could provides some useful advices to the industrial structure upgrading of China. This paper includes five chapters. The first chapter introduces the background of industrial structure, the theory and research status. The second chapter analysis the carbon emissions status of China, compares with other 8 countries, including developed countries and developing countries. This part can establish a foundation for the subsequent research. The third chapter uses the input-output analysis and the hypothetical extraction method for a future analysis. Analyze the linkages of industrial carbon emissions, which were measured by internal emission, complex emission, net forward linkage emission and net backward linkage emission. We discovered the linkage in the industry blocks and the energy sector is the biggest “CO2 output sector”. To some extent, the energy sector bears a lot of carbon emissions for other sectors. The forth chapter continues the study based on the previous chapter. We built a system dynamics model, which contained the economic subsystem, the environment subsystem, the population subsystem. This system dynamics model was built to simulate the GDP and total carbon emissions in three scenarios. Finally, we found that invested more capital to service, high-technology sectors simply could not reduce the total carbon emissions of China. The linkage of carbon emissions between 8 industry blocks need to be pay attention. The last chapter summarizes the situation of carbon emissions and the industrial l