Krugman-Obstfeld-ch20 - Cornell University Economics资料.ppt

* * * * * * * * * * Slide 20-* Copyright ? 2003 Pearson Education, Inc. The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas Table 20-2: People Changing Region of Residence in 1986 (percent of total population) Slide 20-* Copyright ? 2003 Pearson Education, Inc. Case Study: Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area? Europe is not an optimum currency area: Most EU countries export form 10% to 20% of their output to other EU countries. EU-U.S. trade is only 2% of U.S. GNP. Labor is much more mobile within the U.S. than within Europe. Federal transfers and changes in federal tax payments provide a much bigger cushion for region-specific shocks in the U.S. than do EU revenues and expenditures. The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas Slide 20-* Copyright ? 2003 Pearson Education, Inc. The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas Figure 20-9: Divergent Inflation in the Euro Zone Slide 20-* Copyright ? 2003 Pearson Education, Inc. The Future of EMU If EMU succeeds it will promote European political as well as economic integration. If EMU fails the goal of European political unification will be set back. Problems that the EMU will face in the coming years: Europe is not an optimum currency area. Economic union is so far in front of political union. EU labor markets are very rigid. SGP constrains fiscal policies. Slide 20-* Copyright ? 2003 Pearson Education, Inc. Summary Fixed exchange rates in Europe were a by-product of the Bretton Woods system. The EMS of fixed intra-EU exchange rates was inaugurated in March 1979. In practice all EMS currencies were pegged to the DM. On January 1, 1999, 11 EU countries initiated an EMU by adopting a common currency, the euro. Greece became the 12th member two years later. Slide 20-* Copyright ? 2003 Pearson Education, Inc. Summary The Maastricht Treaty specified a set of macroeconomic convergence criteria that EU countries would need to satisfy to qualify for admission to EMU. The theory of optimum currency areas implies that count