全球奢侈品市场监控（英文版）.pptx

WORLDWIDELUXURYMARKETMONITOR2016 SPRING UPDATEPERSONAL LUXURY GOOD MARKET 2015E:THE BEGINNING OF A NEW ERAChinese stockturmoil Subprime financial crisisSocio-Economic TurbulenceSept 11 SARS$/€€253B15€224B 14€218B 13€212B 12€192B 11€173B 10€170B 07€167B 08 €159B €147B 06 €136B 05€128B 04 03€153B 09€133B €133B 01 02€128B 00€108B99€96B 98€92B 9715-14 YoY Current Exch. rate Constant Exch. rate€85B 9695-15 CAGR€77B 95+13%+6%+1%2FOUR CAUSES OF A PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING Q4 2015 ? Lowering consumption from September to holiday season? Heavy discounting of department stores impacting sales trend despite volume uplift and jeopardizing brands direct distribution (both bricks and mortar and online)? The Paris terroristic attacks strongly affected the holiday season in the city and hampered touristic flows in Europe? Other European luxury capitals only partially recovering the lost sales? Mainland China improving in the last weeks of the year? HK and Macau confirmed high double digit contraction? South East Asia improving throughout the year? Japan confirmed a very positive performance? Middle East weak trend further impacted by socio-political tensions (i.e. Beirut terroristic attack)WORSENINGTREND IN USLOWERINGTOURISTICFLOWS IN EUROPEHK AND MACAUDRAGGING DOWNASIAMIDDLE EASTMARKED BYINSTABILITY 3Low single digit growthamidst consumerschanging purchasingpatterns: intercontinentaltourism slowdown andrecovery of Europeanlocal spending1Q2016 + %1++ + ~ --Accessories and Jewelryconfirming 2015outperforming trendsApparel trend impacted bystruggling Accessible giantsWatches far from recoveryAccessories Jewelry Beauty Apparel WatchesJapan and Korea magnets forChinese tourists Japan S. Korea++ Europe, M. China SEA RoW AmericasHK MacauMainland China back to growthEurope counting on resurgenceof local customersUS continuing Q4 2015 trendHong Kong and Macau far frominverting the decline + ~ ---4AMERICASStruggling to deliverUS MARKET IN DECLINE WITHNO SUPPORT OF TOURISTSAND UNEV