基于box-averaged方法的ci预警方法分析-analysis of ci early warning method based on box - averaged method.docxVIP

基于 Box-averaged 方法的 CI 预警方法研究摘 要强对流灾害天气是我国的主要灾害性天气之一。由于强对流天气通常会伴随 着天气在空间和时间范围内的迅速改变，造成严重的人员和经济损失。所以成功 的预警强对流灾害天气，具有重要意义。本文内容主要包括两个部分： 第一部分是输出云产品的实现部分。具体流程为：首先是进行云掩膜处理，主要目的是提高后续卫星数据的处理效率。其次是设计云分类算法，将云分成晴空、液态水、过冷液态水、混合相位、不透明冰、透明冰和多层冰云（冰云是最 高的云层）等几种。此云产品为后续强对流天气预警算法提供输入。第二部分是 CI(Convective Initiation)预警方法的实现。该方法是基于 box 内 的平均亮温值的方法。首先计算前后时间序列卫星云图的 box 内的平均亮温值， 两个时间序列的平均亮温值之差得到未过滤的云顶冷却速率。然后经过由七个测 试组成的滤波器来得到过滤后的云顶冷却速率，最后使用一定的指标来确定 CI 出现的位置。使用京津地区的 FY-2C 卫星云图资料进行试验分析，同时使用相 同区域、同一时间段的雷达回波数据，对 CI 的预报结果进行验证，并根据试验 结果对七个测试的参数进行修改调整，开发出一套适合中国地域的 CI 预警算法， 取得了较好的预警效果。关键词：对流初生；云掩膜； box 内平均亮温值A Study of Forecasting Convective Initiation Based on Method of Box-averagedAbstractConvective weather is one of the severe weathers in China. Due to the strong convective weather is usually accompanied by the weather in space and time range of rapid change,it causes serious threat to peoples life, social production . So the success early warning of the strong convective weather disaster has the important meaning.This study mainly contains two parts.The first part is the realization of outputing cloud product. The specific process is as follows: first of all,it processed by cloud mask,and the main purpose is to improve the efficiency of subsequent satellite data processing.The second part is designing cloud classification algorithm.It classifies cloud into clear, liquid water, supercolded liquid water, mixed phase, opaque ice,non-opaque ice and multilayered ice cloud (ice clouds is the highest cloud layer). This cloud products is mainly to provide the input for the subsequent forecasting convective weather algorithm.The second part is the realization of forecasting CI algorithm. The method is based on the box-averaged bright temperature of befor-after time sequence of satellite data. The minus of befor-after time sequence of satellite datas box-averaged bright temperature is called unfiltered cloud top cooling rate. Then by seven test of filter,it gets filtered cloud top cooling rate, and