教育费用上涨对城镇居民消费行为影响的实证研究论文论文.docVIP

对比分析中得出城镇居民因教育费用上涨使消费更趋理性、城镇居民整体消费 没有长期偏离消费和收入之间的均衡关系的结论。　 第二，通过建立消费、收入和学杂保育相对指数的协整关系得出结论：２０ 世纪 ９０ 年代中后期以来我国教育费用上涨过快；居民消费行为虽没有偏离消费 和收入的长期均衡关系，但影响了居民消费结构，对其它消费产生了挤占效应。　 　  关键词：状态空间模型；学杂保育相对指数；消费行为；　 ECM 模型；协整；　　　　　　　　  Panel Data模型　  　  ４　 　 Abstract 　 Since reforming and opening up, although disposable income of residents has been increasing, the average propensity consumption is dropped .This change in consumer behavior during this period has reflected relatively weak consumer potential demand, while the corresponding savings deposits of residents has emerged extraordinary growth characteristics, and this situation will go on. Thus, why does exit this phenomenon? To address this issue, Home and abroads scholars have made a considerable amount of research from different angles, but I hold that the rising cost of education is an important reason why the consumer market has been depressing since 1996.So the theme of this dissertation is to study long and short consumer behavior of urban residents affected the rising cost of education and to discuss the characteristics impact of the food consumption behavior from different income groups by employing the econometrics models. Then based on the experimental conclusions, the author will present some suggestions for the Chinese macroeconomic policy-makers. The article includes five parts: Chapter one: Preface, the author introduces the background, purpose and significance of this paper. Based on the above mentioned facts, the author draws the fundamental trails of thoughts and main contents. Chapter two: In this part, the author reviews the theory of consumption functions in new classical economics. Chapter three: This part is the most important. Probe long and short consumer behavior of urban residents affected by the rising cost of education. Firstly, estimate long-term time-varying equilibrium  　  ５　 relationship between consumption and income by means of establishing state-space model and Kalman f