基于回合乒乓球胜败预测模型研究.docVIP

基于回合乒乓球胜败预测模型研究 　　摘要：乒乓球比赛中对双方胜败的预测是教练进行排兵布阵十分关心的问题，如何对双方胜败预测提供科学的依据。首先提出了乒乓球比赛中回合的定义，并通过一个刻画双方命中率的序列来描述双方的技术水平。在该序列的基础上，计算出每个回合中比赛双方的胜率，由此计算出比赛双方最终比赛的胜率。运用该模型，对进攻与防守典型战术分析，得出具有指导性的建议：一个优秀的乒乓球运动员，应该根据对手的命中率来确定自己的多进攻还是多防守。还利用优秀国手的比赛录像进行数据统计，运用文中模型对国手进行技术分析和胜败预测，得到合理的结论。 　　关键词：乒乓球；预测模型；命中率；典型战术；比赛回合 　　中图分类号：G846.03文献标识码：A文章编号：1007-3612(2011)12-0138-04 　　Research on the Forecasting Model of Table Tennis Match Based on Bout 　　XIAO Hua?yong1，ZHOU Ying2，LI Feng?jiang1 　　(1.Department of Mathematics，Northwestern Polytechnical University，Xi’an 710072，Shaanxi China； 　　2.Shaanxi Physical Education and Sport School，Xian 710062,Shaanxi China) 　　Abstract:It’s very important to forecast the victory/defeat of table tennis match for the coaches in making the line?up strategy.And provide scientific reference for coaches to forecast the victory/defeat of the table tennis match.In this paper，the definition of bout is proposed firstly.Then it uses a sequence depicting the successful rate of playing to describe the technique level of both sides in a match.By utilizing the sequence，we calculate the probability of victory for each player in a bout，and finally get the probability of victory in whole match for them.Using this model，based on the analysis on typical tactics such as attack and defending，the paper gives a practical suggestion that an excellent table tennis player should be able to decide the odds of attack and defence in a match according to the successful rate of playing with his counterworker.Besides，we do some mathematical statistics to match kinescope of outstanding national champions.The paper also carries out technique analysis and data statistic for these champions by utilizing the model and get very reasonable conclusions. 　　Key words: table tennis;forecast model;successful rate of playing;typical playing tactic;bout 　　 　　在乒乓球比赛中，如何对比赛双方运动员各自的胜率进行估计，是排兵布阵和选择技战术的重要依据。但由于球类运动复杂的技战术及其在比赛中的灵活性，因而人们很难根据运动员的运动素质来对他们的比赛成绩进行预测。 　　 在乒乓球技术研究中，普遍使用的是吴焕群和张晓蓬的“三段指标法”，该方