香港综合类上市公司研究报告.pdfVIP

HONG KONG Hong Kong Conglomerates Reinitiating coverage – are conglos the promised value land? Our new pecking order We have reinitiated on HK conglos. We downgrade three stocks and upgrade one, and our new pecking order is Citic Pacific, Swire, Wharf, Hutch, and MTR. Cheap on imagined NAVs, not on reality-based earnings Conventional wisdom is that conglos are cheap. Based on sell-side NAVs, they forever trade at significant discounts to intrinsic values, and 97% of sell-side Inside ratings are Buys/Holds. This implies that either the market is never efficient or that analysts perennially over-estimate their NAVs. But based on earnings or Are conglos the promised value land? 2 dividends, the conglos are anything but cheap – their dividend yield is 2.4% vs. the HK/China market‟s at 2.8%; their 16x forward P/E is 40% above the market‟s Value, value trap, or something else 4 at 11.5x; yet their consensus earnings growth is just 6% vs. the market‟s at 14%. Brief view on key stocks 7 The key end-markets Thoughts on some key end markets 10 Thoughts on conglos‟ portfolios 17 We like HK office and retail landlords but worry about t