Politically Feasible Emission Target Formulas to Attain 460 ppm 政治上可行的排放目标达到60 ppm的计算公式.doc

May 25, 2010 + Feb.15 + October 24, 2011Politically Feasible Emissions Targets to Attain 460 ppm CO2 Concentrations Valentina Bosetti, FEEM, Milan, and Jeffrey Frankel, Harvard University Valentina Bosetti received support from the Climate Impacts and Policy Division of the EuroMediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC). Jeffrey Frankel received funding from the Sustainability Science Program at Harvard University, supported by Italy’s Ministry for Environment, Land and Sea. This article is a condensed version of a paper written while Bosetti was visiting at the Princeton Environmental Institute (PEI) in the framework of cooperation between CMCC and PEI. The full November 2009 version of the paper, with appendix tables, is available under the title, “Global Climate Policy Architecture and Political Feasibility: Specific Formulas and Emission Targets to Attain 460 ppm CO2 Concentrations,” as FEEM Working Paper 92.2009 and NBER Working Paper 15516. Abstract A new climate change treaty must address three current gaps: the absence of emissions targets extending far into the future, the absence of participation by the United States, China, and other developing countries, and the absence of reason to expect compliance. Moreover, to be politically acceptable, a post-Kyoto treaty must recognize certain constraints regarding country-by-country economic costs. This article presents a framework for assigning quantitative emissions allocations across countries, one budget period at a time, through a two-stage plan: (i) China and other developing countries accept targets at business-as-usual (BAU) levels in the coming budget period, and, during the same period, the US agrees to cuts below BAU; (ii) all countries are asked to make further cuts in the future in accordance with a formula which includes a Progressive Reductions Factor, a Latecomer Catch-up Factor, and a Gradual Equalization Factor. An earlier proposal (Frankel 2009) for specific parameter value