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The Trade Policy Debate Export Promotion, Import Substitution 贸易政策的辩论促进出口,进口替代
Trade Strategies for Development: Export Promotion versus Import Substitution Export promotion: looking outward and seeing trade barriers primary-commodity export expansion expanding manufactured good exports Import substitution: looking inward but still paying outward tariffs, infant industries, and protection Drawbacks of ISI Protection ? Inefficiency Protection ? Foreign Ownership ? Profits Remitted Copy MDC Technologies ? High Capital Intensities ? Little benefit to abundant labor / Limited learning Import capital goods ? weak backward linkages Forward linkages penalized: Brazilian computers for Brazilians. Protection ?? Overvaluation Traditional exports hurt – urban vs. rural bias Capital intensity further encouraged Overvaluation How? Run down reserves / borrow more reserves Reduce imports via tariffs and NTBs Ration available foreign exchange Dual exchange rates / preferred customers/ rent seekers Why not? Hurt exporters: reduced sales / reduced value of proceeds Nation lives beyond means … temporarily Eventual sharp devaluation: Import Prices ? CoL ? Wage–Price Spiral ? Worsened B of P ? Currency Crisis Why Tariffs? Government revenue Discourage imports/Improve b of p Foster economies of scale Reduce dependency on MDCs Attract FDI – they get in under tariff barrier EFFECTIVE RATE OF PROTECTION Net nominal tariff relative to value added Trade pessimists Slow growth of demand for primary products Low Income Elasticity/Increased Efficiency/Synthetics Terms of trade deterioration over time MDC import barriers Trade optimists Competition ? efficiency Economies of scale for efficient sectors Attract foreign capital Generate foreign exchange Propels Growth – When World Demand is Strong South-South Trade and Economic Integration Growth of trade among developing countries Economic integration: theory and practice Industrial complexes ? Economies of scale Regional trading blocks and the globalization of trade NAFTA: Mexican boom, ~ 1996 - 2000 Mercosur: Brazil /
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