编组站发展规划决策支持系统分析-analysis of decision support system for marshalling yard development planning.docxVIP

西南交通大学硕士研究生学位论文第f页摘要随着国民经济的快速发展，车流量迅速增长，我国现有编组站基本均处 于超负荷运转状态，因此根据路网以及全路编组站的建设规划，还需有计划 地新建或改建一些具有现代化装备的规模较大的编组站，编组站规划是新建 及改扩建工作的基础，必须对编组站规划工作进行研究。基于案例和知识推 理的智能决策支持系统可以较好的解决缺乏数学模型的半结构化和非结构化 问题，从而做到科学决策。论文在分析编组站规划工作过程和特点的基础上，提出建立编组站规划 决策支持系统的构想，并对其必要性进行了论证。结合智能决策支持系统和 CBR系统，根据编组站规划工作流程分析了编组站规划决策支持系统的功能 和系统结构，该系统采用基于案例和知识的推理较好的解决了目前由于缺乏 编组站规划数学模型和公式造成的规划方案中人为因素影响较大的问题。对 系统结构中的数据库子系统、模型库子系统、知识库予系统和案例库子系统 的主要内容和结构进行了设计，并结合领域知识和编组站案例的特点，用逻 辑法和面向对象的表达方法用计算机技术表达了知识和案例。最后对编组站规划方案拟定和方案评选两个子系统进行分析，对其功能 子模块进行设计，构建了规划方案评价指标体系，介绍了运量预测和方案评 选的常用模型，帮助决策者进行编组站规划方案的科学合理决策。关键词：编组站：决策支持：规划；CRBABSTRACTAs the rapid development of the rational economy almost all the marshalling yards in China are in the state of over loading，because of the increasing of the train volume．So according to the constructing planning of the railway net and marshalling yards．it is necessary to build all rebuild some now large scare equipment marshalling yards based on the plans．The research work on the marshalling plan is worthful because it is the base to implement the project．In order tO make the scientific decisions，the Intellegent Decision Support System(IDSS)based on Case—Based reasoning(CBR)and Knowledge·Based reasoning(KBR)call be used to solve the half-structural and non—structure problem which lack ofmathematics models．In this paper,based ontheanalysis of the processand characters of theplanning work of marshalling yards，the concept of building the DSS for yards planning is presented．The necessary to do that is also verified，combining withIDSS and CBR．The factions and System structure of the DSS for marshallingyards planning are inintroduced accordingly to the process．In the system，the CBR and KBR are applied to solve the problem successfully in marshalling yards planning，which call not be modeld by mathetics-model，and depend much onhuman factors．The principle contents and structures of the date subsystem、model sub-system、 knowledge sub—system、case sub—system are designed． Considering the special knowledg