Chap 3 Probability - Faculty of Biomedical Engineering, Iran 第一章3概率-生物医学工程学院，伊朗.ppt

Probability Experiments, Outcomes, Events Experiments Outcomes 1. Experiment Process of Obtaining an Observation, Outcome or Simple Event 2. Sample Space (S) Collection of All Possible Outcomes Outcome Examples Toss a Coin, Note Face Head, Tail Toss 2 Coins, Note Faces HH, HT, TH, TT Play a Football Game Win, Lose, Tie Inspect a Part, Note Quality Defective, OK Observe Gender Male, Female Events Any Collection of Sample Points (outcomes) Simple Event Collection of outcomes that’s simple to describe Compound Event Collection of outcomes that is described as unions or intersections of other events Event Examples Sample Space HH, HT, TH, TT 1 Head 1 Tail HT, TH Heads on 1st Coin HH, HT At Least 1 Head HH, HT, TH Heads on Both HH Sample Space Visualizing Sample Space 1. Listing S = {Head, Tail} 2. Venn Diagram 3. Contingency Table 4. Decision Tree Diagram Venn Diagram Contingency Table Tree Diagram Probabilities What is Probability? 1. Numerical Measure of Likelihood that Event Will Occur P(Event) P(A) Prob(A) 2. Lies Between 0 1 Sum of outcome probabilities is 1 Probability P(A)=lim[n(A)/N0] N0 ∞ Many Repetitions! Conditional Probability Conditional Probability 1. Event Probability Given that Another Event Occurred 2. Revise Original Sample Space to Account for New Information Eliminates Certain Outcomes P(A | B) = P(A and B) P(B) Conditional Probability Using Venn Diagram Conditional Probability Using Contingency Table Statistical Independence 1. Event Occurrence Does Not Affect Probability of Another Event P(A | B) = P(A) Example: Toss 1 Coin Twice (independent) P(second toss H)= ? P(second toss H | first toss H) = ? Tree Diagram Thinking Challenge Using the Table Then the Formula, What’s the Probability? Pr(C)= P(B|C) = P(C|B) = Are C B Independent? Solution* Using the Formula, the Probabilities Are: Multiplicative Rule Multiplicative Rule 1. Used to Get Compound Probabilities for Intersection of Events Called Joint Events