民航运输航空器着陆阶段偏出跑道事 件分析模型.docx

文章编号: 0258-2724( 2012) 05-0895-06DOI: 10．文章编号: 0258-2724( 2012) 05-0895-06DOI: 10． 3969 / j． issn． 0258-2724． 2012． 05． 026民航运输航空器着陆阶段偏出跑道事件分析模型霍志勤1 ， 茹毅2 ， 韩松臣1( 1． 南京航空航天大学民航学院，江苏 南京 210016; 2． 北京首都国际机场股份有限公司，北京 100621)摘 要: 为了克服故障树分析方法只能描述正常和故障两种状态的缺陷，利用故障树方法的逻辑分析优势，以及贝叶斯网络描述多态事件和计算概率的功能，建立了基于故障树和贝叶斯网络相融合的航空器着陆偏出跑道 事件分析模型，提出了故障树与贝叶斯网络之间的转换算法求解该模型． 根据 1996—2010 年中国民航着陆偏出 跑道事件的数据，确定了着陆航空器偏出跑道的主要原因，并按重要程度进行了排序． 研究结果表明: 积水、反喷 或减速板故障、复杂气象条件、驾驶术欠缺、前轮转弯卡阻、夜航或受灯光不利影响、对机组资源管理失效、积冰 积雪是导致着陆偏出跑道的主要风险因素，其后验概率均大于 0． 3; 应 针 对 主 要 风 险 因 素，制定针对性预防 措施．关键词: 偏 / 冲出跑道; 偏出; 故障树分析法; 贝叶斯网络中图分类号:文献标志码:V328． 2AAnalysis Model of Transport AircraftVeering off Runway during Landing PhaseHUO Zhiqin1 ， RU Yi2 ， HAN Songchen1( 1． School of Civil Aviation，Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics，Nanjing 210016，China; 2． BeijingCapital International Airport Company Limited，Beijing 100621，China)Abstract: In order to overcome the flaws of traditional fault tree analysis which can only describe twostates: normal or fault，a combined method based on fault tree ( FT) and Bayesian Network ( BN) for landing aircraft veering off runway analysis was put forward． The new method not only took the advantages of logical analysis of fault tree but also the function of the description of polymorphic events and probability calculation of Bayesian network． In addition，a transform algorithm from FT to BN was proposed to solve the model． Based on the data about aircraft veering off runway during landing phase of Civil Aviation Administration of China from 1996 to 2010，the key factors causing runway excursion landing accidents of aircrafts were determined and then ranked by their importance． The resultindicates that standing water，dysfunction of thrust reverser or airbrake，complex weather conditions， deficiency of piloting technology，jammed nose wheel steering，night operation or adverse influence from lights，failure of crew resource management，accumulate